Wednesday, April 28, 2010

hot dog update

I ate 4 hot dogs around 4 am after drinking a little bit tonight. My total is at 397 which = 53 more to go in the next 3 days.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Hot Dog !

In the poker forums I guy bet $1000 to win $1500 that he could eat 450 hot dogs in the month of April.

hot dog consumption, day-by-day status

date/amount/total/ED

april 1st - 17, 17, 15
april 2nd - 18, 35, 30
april 3rd - 15, 50, 45
april 4th - 13, 63, 60
april 5th - 14, 77, 75
april 6th - 13.5, 90.5, 90
april 7th - 13.5, 104, 105
april 8th - 12, 116, 120
april 9th - 15, 131, 135
april 10th - 12, 143, 150
april 11th - 17, 160, 165
april 12th - 11, 171, 180
april 13th - 10, 181, 195
april 14th - 19, 200, 210
april 15th - 8, 208, 225
april 16th - 14, 222, 240
april 17th - 17, 239, 255
april 18th - 18, 257, 270
april 19th - 18, 275, 285
april 20th - 16, 291, 300
april 21st - 6, 297, 315
april 22nd - 16, 309, 330
april 23rd - 19, 328, 345
april 24th - 18, 346, 360
april 25th - 9, 355, 375

he has had 11 on april 26th already, which is solid.

4.5 day and 84 to go. Should be close.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/poker-beats-brags-variance/hot-dog-prop-bet-april-1st-30th-749434/

Monday, April 19, 2010

Totally Awesome

Sunday's golf

You may have heard this:

Something seemed very wrong when Brian Davis of England summoned a rules official immediately after hitting his pitch from the hazard near Calibogue Sound in Sunday’s playoff with Jim Furyk for the Verizon Heritage title. Actually, something was very right.

As most of the golf world knows by now, Davis called a two-stroke penalty on himself that cost him the tournament.

He had ever-so-slightly nicked a reed during his backswing while trying to recover from the beach left of the 18th green. Barely moved it. To the naked eye, it was almost invisible. But not to Davis, who was pretty sure he knew what had happened and who called Slugger White of the PGA Tour over to verify his judgment.


While the self-imposed penalty is notable, the truth is that even without the penalty Furyk was likely to win. Davis' shot sailed 25 feet past the hole and he was unlikely to make par anyway.

I thought that what may have been more interesting than the penalty was Davis' decision to play the shot from inside the hazard itself.

For those of you who didn't watch, here was the situation in a nutshell. Davis' shot hit the edge of the green, then rolled off the course and onto a sandy beach. Furyk was obliged to putt first and left his ball 6 feet from the hole and was likely carding a 4.

Davis had two choices:

1. Hit from the hazard...a wet sandy lie with no practice swing..or
2. Take a one stroke penalty and then try to chip/putt it from the green side grass maybe 15 feet from the hole.

From there it becomes (or should have become) an evaluation of percentages.

How many times can he chip it in from 15 feet( 35%)

vs

How many times can he hit up up and then make the putt - Which is a combination of; when he chips it to 10 feet ( 30% of the time) he'll make the putt 80% for a total of 24% PLUS when his chips between 10-20 (30%) he'll make the putt 40% for another 12$; and when he chips is more than 20 feet away (60%) he'll only make it 5% of the time, add 3% for a total of 24 + 12 + 3 = 39% of the time he'll score a 2.

As 39% is higher than 35%, he should play it from the hazard.

Of course I'm making all of those numbers up. But the point is that there's a non-intuitive process by which you can ( and perhaps should) make decisions. Many of those decisions occur in your every day life.

That's the foundation of applied game theory, and also the genesis behind a pretty cool book that I've added to my birthday wish list.

DUCY? Exploits, Advice, and Ideas of the Renowned Strategist by David Sklansy
(DUCY is for Do You See Why)

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

My new two favorite riders

This guys crack me up.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Rahsaan Bahati is a ninja

Rahsaan Bahati (Bahati Foundation), who was involved in the pile-up, was seen throwing his sunglasses at a rider in the group while standing in the road at the start of the penultimate lap. Bahati¹s glasses caught Andrew Pinfold’s (UnitedHealthcare) front wheel, ripping off his computer receiver.... the computer receiver lodged in his front wheel, slowing Pinfold enough for the Jamis tandem, Cantwell in tow, to surge past on the left side of the road.

If you can render an otherwise fully functional bicycle useless, by throwing your sunglasses at it while it speeds by at 30 mph, then your wasting your talents on bicycle racing.

@ 40 seconds

Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Run Jon Run !

I am no longer the worst dancer in the world

whatya expect

when you buy your intralipid off the internet.

Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Chrome Shoes

I participated in this....very cool.

Hats of...actually shoes off to Chrome Shoes.

Turds for Gold Results !