Saturday, February 28, 2009
Making the pros
You know you're getting pretty good at this parenting thing when you instinctively know the difference between the sound of an object falling down the stairs and a child falling down the stairs.
Friday, February 27, 2009
_DO_ call it a comeback
Weather pending, I'll make my triumphant return to bicycle racing on Sunday.
My wife is pretty psyched about me doing a C race on a tight course, early in the season, on a wet windy day.
I've been notified that I'll be scrubbing out my own wounds.
My wife is pretty psyched about me doing a C race on a tight course, early in the season, on a wet windy day.
I've been notified that I'll be scrubbing out my own wounds.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
No Stats All Star
An interesting piece on statistics and basketball. - ty Andrew
ToC is done and I've heard some amazement at the fact that Armstrong was able to predict how much time that he would lose to Levi in the time trial. For those of you who still believe that bike racing is largely about guts and being "super-motivated" you may want to stop reading now. Predicting the outcome of the TT or for that matter, the outcome of a mountain finish isn't really that hard to do if you know a few things.
If you know the sustain wattage of the riders at threshold. ( which Lance would have as they're teammates)
If you know the drag difference between riders ( negligible on climbs and not significant between Levi and Lance)
The weight of the riders ( also known)
If you know the terrain and distance of the event ( known quantities)
and you assume both riders aren't sick or injured.
At that point its a matter of punching in sustained wattage at threshold over distance. Then factor in weight/terrain and if necessary drag. Then you'll have an approximation of what their finishing time will be. Even if some of your assumptions are wrong, you should have a decent idea of of the difference of their times relative to each other.
Dr Michele Ferrari may be guilty of providing riders with drugs, but he's not guilty of being an idiot. Years ago he created for his clients ( including one Lance Armstrong) a catalogue of VAM. VAM was a measure of riders rate of assent over various climbs. By establishing the VAM he could, essentially, back his way through the formula described above and figure out power output and projected climbing times for various riders. That's one of the ways that Lance knew to let Pantani go away during stage 15 of the 2000 Tour De France, Ferrari knew that Pantani would only about 30 seconds at the top based on his previous recent performances.
That might take some of the beauty and mystique out of the grand tours, but it also goes to show how Johan Bruneel and Lance Armstong's legendary preparation and attention directly contributed to his 7 victories.
Some other point the the same topic:
- The theory also reinforces the point that LeMond made, which was ignored and which I think eventually got Catlin bounced from Armstrong's team. Once you've established a baseline wattage/kg at threshold, riders shouldn't see a significant increase in that wattage unless there's something funny going on.
- Lance already has his team accumulating this wattage and VAM numbers on other riders. This of course includes the information he has the greatest access to...that on Alberto Contador. Lance will start the tour knowing whether or not he can outclimb and out TT Countador. Regardless of what he says, that will be the only factor in deciding who will be team leader.
- Classics, largely, are immune from this sort of scientific application. Classics races are too dynamic and unpredictable....which is why they remain my favorite.
ToC is done and I've heard some amazement at the fact that Armstrong was able to predict how much time that he would lose to Levi in the time trial. For those of you who still believe that bike racing is largely about guts and being "super-motivated" you may want to stop reading now. Predicting the outcome of the TT or for that matter, the outcome of a mountain finish isn't really that hard to do if you know a few things.
If you know the sustain wattage of the riders at threshold. ( which Lance would have as they're teammates)
If you know the drag difference between riders ( negligible on climbs and not significant between Levi and Lance)
The weight of the riders ( also known)
If you know the terrain and distance of the event ( known quantities)
and you assume both riders aren't sick or injured.
At that point its a matter of punching in sustained wattage at threshold over distance. Then factor in weight/terrain and if necessary drag. Then you'll have an approximation of what their finishing time will be. Even if some of your assumptions are wrong, you should have a decent idea of of the difference of their times relative to each other.
Dr Michele Ferrari may be guilty of providing riders with drugs, but he's not guilty of being an idiot. Years ago he created for his clients ( including one Lance Armstrong) a catalogue of VAM. VAM was a measure of riders rate of assent over various climbs. By establishing the VAM he could, essentially, back his way through the formula described above and figure out power output and projected climbing times for various riders. That's one of the ways that Lance knew to let Pantani go away during stage 15 of the 2000 Tour De France, Ferrari knew that Pantani would only about 30 seconds at the top based on his previous recent performances.
That might take some of the beauty and mystique out of the grand tours, but it also goes to show how Johan Bruneel and Lance Armstong's legendary preparation and attention directly contributed to his 7 victories.
Some other point the the same topic:
- The theory also reinforces the point that LeMond made, which was ignored and which I think eventually got Catlin bounced from Armstrong's team. Once you've established a baseline wattage/kg at threshold, riders shouldn't see a significant increase in that wattage unless there's something funny going on.
- Lance already has his team accumulating this wattage and VAM numbers on other riders. This of course includes the information he has the greatest access to...that on Alberto Contador. Lance will start the tour knowing whether or not he can outclimb and out TT Countador. Regardless of what he says, that will be the only factor in deciding who will be team leader.
- Classics, largely, are immune from this sort of scientific application. Classics races are too dynamic and unpredictable....which is why they remain my favorite.
I'm twittering
flickstrong on twitter.com
and I'll save your the trouble of having to comment...yes that makes me gay.
and I'll save your the trouble of having to comment...yes that makes me gay.
Friday, February 20, 2009
extortion explained
So the mob goes into a neighborhood and explains to a shop owner that there are dangers in the world and the mob is the agency best equipped to protect the shop owner. Should the owner balk at that idea, he'll find himself proven wrong when, coincidentally, a brick gets thrown through his window two night later....surely something that would have been prevented if he had taken advantage of the "insurance" policy offered by the mob.
Over the course of time, the mob recognized various opportunities that their diversified business associations provided. For instance, everyone they provided "protection" for also need to throw out their trash. So the mob formed a trash hauling business. Also, if the mob provided protection for both a painter and for a grocer, and the Giants failed to cover on Sunday... the grocer might find himself in need of some painting, which the mob would happily arrange with their friend the painter...for a standard 20% vig, on both sides. Over the course of time came drug distribution, gambling, and other associated business.
In short, the mob became a very convenient one stop shop for everything everyone needed, for the small fee of just about everything you owned. And if that ended up costing too much, no worries, they also had a very successful lending program to ensure you kept afloat.
Yeah you were giving them all your money, and they were putting you deeper in debt, and you were subject to their whims and any given time, but you WERE protected. Make no bones about that, you were definately protected.
So just replace "brick" with 9/11, "trash" with "everything", and "mob" with "government" and you see what has me all pissed off.
Oh right...you don't have to change drugs and gambling. Those are the same.
Over the course of time, the mob recognized various opportunities that their diversified business associations provided. For instance, everyone they provided "protection" for also need to throw out their trash. So the mob formed a trash hauling business. Also, if the mob provided protection for both a painter and for a grocer, and the Giants failed to cover on Sunday... the grocer might find himself in need of some painting, which the mob would happily arrange with their friend the painter...for a standard 20% vig, on both sides. Over the course of time came drug distribution, gambling, and other associated business.
In short, the mob became a very convenient one stop shop for everything everyone needed, for the small fee of just about everything you owned. And if that ended up costing too much, no worries, they also had a very successful lending program to ensure you kept afloat.
Yeah you were giving them all your money, and they were putting you deeper in debt, and you were subject to their whims and any given time, but you WERE protected. Make no bones about that, you were definately protected.
So just replace "brick" with 9/11, "trash" with "everything", and "mob" with "government" and you see what has me all pissed off.
Oh right...you don't have to change drugs and gambling. Those are the same.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
the story
Transcript of Paul Kimmage's radio interview in Ireland, 9/10/08:
"My reaction to Armstrong coming back? ...the enthusiasm that I had built up about the sport in the last couple of years has been all but completely wiped out in the last couple of hours.
Let's turn the clock back to Armstrong's last apparition in the sport. The Tour de France 2005. He's standing on the podium. And he makes this big impassioned speech. Which is basically saying 'The last thing I'll say to the people who don't believe in cycling, the cynics, the sceptics: I'm sorry for you. I'm sorry you can't dream big. I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles.' That was 2005, his last ride in the the Tour de France. And the people flanking him on that podium were Ivan Basso and Jan Ullrich. And a month after that race ended the French newspaper L'Equipe reported that in his first winning Tour de France, in 1999, Armstrong had tested positive for EPO. Six separate samples taken during that race revealed positive tests for EPO.
STORY: Angry Armstrong blasts reporter; 2/12/09
This return, he wants us to believe that it's all about saving the world from cancer. That's complete bullshit. It's about revenge It's about ego. It's about Lance Armstrong. I think he's trying to rewrite his exit from the sport. He's sat back and he's watched the last two years and he cannot stand the idea that there are clean cyclists now that will overtake his legacy and buy the memory of all the crap that he put the sport through.
When I heard it being mooted first that he was coming back, I thought well that's fine, because the first thing ASO are going to say is 'sorry Lance, we've seen your results from the 1999 tests , you're not coming back.' I expected a similar statement from Pat McQuaid. What's happened instead is that Christian Prudhomme has said 'yes, you can come back, no problem.' And Pat McQiad has said 'I really admire this man, he's a tremendous ambassador for cycling.' What we're getting here is the corporate dollars and the money that's going to accompany this guy back into the game. The money that's going to bring for Nike, one of the big sponsors of the Tour. And for the UCI, who have been experiencing some serious problems in the last couple of years.
Much as you want to say the sport has changed, as quickly as they can change their own opinions - McQuaid, who says one thing in private and quite the opposite in public, and Prudhomme - if they can change so quickly then I'm sorry, it's really very, very difficult to have any optimism with regard to Armstrong and the way the sport was moving forward. For me, if he comes back next year, the sport takes two steps back.
I spent the whole Tour this year with Slipstream, the Garmin team. That wasn't by accident. I chose that team deliberately, because of what they were saying about the sport and the message they were putting out. But also the fact that so many of that team had raced with Armstrong during his best years and knew exactly what he got up to. And the stuff that I learnt on that Tour about him and what he was really like was absolutely shocking, really shocking.
What's going to happen now is he comes back and everybody's going to wave their hands in the air and give him a big clap. And all the guys who really know what he's about are going to feel so utterly and totally depressed. And I'm talking about Jonathan Vuaghthers, who raced with Armstrong that first winning Tour and who doped. And if you look at that Tour, Armstrong's first win, there were seven Americans on that team. Frankie Andreu has said he used EPO. Tyler Hamilton has been done for [blood doping]. George Hincapie was exposed as a doper by Emma O'Reilly, the team soigneur. Christian Vand Velde and Jonathan Vaughters . both are members of Slipstream and would promote the notion that this was not a clean team by any means. When you look at that and what Armstrong's done and how he's seemingly got away with it, it just makes his come back very hard to stomach.
Astana's the absolute perfect team for him. He'd be renewing his old acquaintance with Bruyneel, who wanted to hire Basso last year. Will he be renewing his old acquaintance with Ferrari, the famous doctor? Will Bruyneel be taking pictures of the questioning journalists and pinning them on the side of his bus?
When Armstrong talks about transparency, this is the greatest laugh. When he talks about embracing this new transparency . I'm really looking forward to that. I'm really looking forward to my first interview request with him and seeing how that comes back. Because that would really make it interesting.
This guy, any other way but his bullying and intimidation wrapped up in this great cloak, the great cancer martyr . this is what he hides behind all the time. The great man who conquered cancer. Well he is the cancer in this sport. And for two years this sport has been in remission. And now the cancer's back."
Podium Cafe.com
Copyright 2009 / All Rights Reserved
"My reaction to Armstrong coming back? ...the enthusiasm that I had built up about the sport in the last couple of years has been all but completely wiped out in the last couple of hours.
Let's turn the clock back to Armstrong's last apparition in the sport. The Tour de France 2005. He's standing on the podium. And he makes this big impassioned speech. Which is basically saying 'The last thing I'll say to the people who don't believe in cycling, the cynics, the sceptics: I'm sorry for you. I'm sorry you can't dream big. I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles.' That was 2005, his last ride in the the Tour de France. And the people flanking him on that podium were Ivan Basso and Jan Ullrich. And a month after that race ended the French newspaper L'Equipe reported that in his first winning Tour de France, in 1999, Armstrong had tested positive for EPO. Six separate samples taken during that race revealed positive tests for EPO.
STORY: Angry Armstrong blasts reporter; 2/12/09
This return, he wants us to believe that it's all about saving the world from cancer. That's complete bullshit. It's about revenge It's about ego. It's about Lance Armstrong. I think he's trying to rewrite his exit from the sport. He's sat back and he's watched the last two years and he cannot stand the idea that there are clean cyclists now that will overtake his legacy and buy the memory of all the crap that he put the sport through.
When I heard it being mooted first that he was coming back, I thought well that's fine, because the first thing ASO are going to say is 'sorry Lance, we've seen your results from the 1999 tests , you're not coming back.' I expected a similar statement from Pat McQuaid. What's happened instead is that Christian Prudhomme has said 'yes, you can come back, no problem.' And Pat McQiad has said 'I really admire this man, he's a tremendous ambassador for cycling.' What we're getting here is the corporate dollars and the money that's going to accompany this guy back into the game. The money that's going to bring for Nike, one of the big sponsors of the Tour. And for the UCI, who have been experiencing some serious problems in the last couple of years.
Much as you want to say the sport has changed, as quickly as they can change their own opinions - McQuaid, who says one thing in private and quite the opposite in public, and Prudhomme - if they can change so quickly then I'm sorry, it's really very, very difficult to have any optimism with regard to Armstrong and the way the sport was moving forward. For me, if he comes back next year, the sport takes two steps back.
I spent the whole Tour this year with Slipstream, the Garmin team. That wasn't by accident. I chose that team deliberately, because of what they were saying about the sport and the message they were putting out. But also the fact that so many of that team had raced with Armstrong during his best years and knew exactly what he got up to. And the stuff that I learnt on that Tour about him and what he was really like was absolutely shocking, really shocking.
What's going to happen now is he comes back and everybody's going to wave their hands in the air and give him a big clap. And all the guys who really know what he's about are going to feel so utterly and totally depressed. And I'm talking about Jonathan Vuaghthers, who raced with Armstrong that first winning Tour and who doped. And if you look at that Tour, Armstrong's first win, there were seven Americans on that team. Frankie Andreu has said he used EPO. Tyler Hamilton has been done for [blood doping]. George Hincapie was exposed as a doper by Emma O'Reilly, the team soigneur. Christian Vand Velde and Jonathan Vaughters . both are members of Slipstream and would promote the notion that this was not a clean team by any means. When you look at that and what Armstrong's done and how he's seemingly got away with it, it just makes his come back very hard to stomach.
Astana's the absolute perfect team for him. He'd be renewing his old acquaintance with Bruyneel, who wanted to hire Basso last year. Will he be renewing his old acquaintance with Ferrari, the famous doctor? Will Bruyneel be taking pictures of the questioning journalists and pinning them on the side of his bus?
When Armstrong talks about transparency, this is the greatest laugh. When he talks about embracing this new transparency . I'm really looking forward to that. I'm really looking forward to my first interview request with him and seeing how that comes back. Because that would really make it interesting.
This guy, any other way but his bullying and intimidation wrapped up in this great cloak, the great cancer martyr . this is what he hides behind all the time. The great man who conquered cancer. Well he is the cancer in this sport. And for two years this sport has been in remission. And now the cancer's back."
Podium Cafe.com
Copyright 2009 / All Rights Reserved
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
odds and ends from the weekend
My daughter had a swim meet over the weekend and set PRs in each of her events. This lead me to take a look at the qualifying standards for junior Olympics. Strangely enough, my daughter would have placed a few spots higher in the 9-10 boys events than she did in the girls races. I'm always surprised to see that for many events, the girls time standards are lower than the boys. This, of course, is a fact often pointed out to the boys by the girls.
---------------------------
The hottest two topics of conversation back and forth to the pool were
* wondering how cool it would be if they could put Lake Huron on Uranus.
and
* complete fascination with rectal thermometers, asking Dad if he even had his butt temperature taken then laughing hysterically.
---------------------------
On Sat, I was half asleep, staring out the window and drinking a cup of coffee when the boy walked in, " good morning Dad."
"urgh", and sipped my coffee.
Then as he walked by the little bastard reached over, "pantsed" me, and kept going.
" You little shit. You know I'm going to kill you"
" HA ! first you gotta catch me ! And you owe me a dollar for cursing.", and he ran downstairs.
I now owe him $26.
-------------------------
---------------------------
The hottest two topics of conversation back and forth to the pool were
* wondering how cool it would be if they could put Lake Huron on Uranus.
and
* complete fascination with rectal thermometers, asking Dad if he even had his butt temperature taken then laughing hysterically.
---------------------------
On Sat, I was half asleep, staring out the window and drinking a cup of coffee when the boy walked in, " good morning Dad."
"urgh", and sipped my coffee.
Then as he walked by the little bastard reached over, "pantsed" me, and kept going.
" You little shit. You know I'm going to kill you"
" HA ! first you gotta catch me ! And you owe me a dollar for cursing.", and he ran downstairs.
I now owe him $26.
-------------------------
Monday, February 16, 2009
Horner is the best
Lance Twittered this 2 hours after the race:
Getting massage and Horner comes in. He's just back from the race. Johan and I were like, "where have u been?".
Reply - "I was at In and Out Burger". What??
He ordered a double-double (xtra onions), fries, coke, and a strawberry shake. Wow.
Getting massage and Horner comes in. He's just back from the race. Johan and I were like, "where have u been?".
Reply - "I was at In and Out Burger". What??
He ordered a double-double (xtra onions), fries, coke, and a strawberry shake. Wow.
ToC oberservations
from yesterday's stage:
- If Horner were such a dop- errrr 'super-motivated' rider he'd be, by far my favorite bicycle racer. He always reads the race perfectly, he speaks his mind, and he's always willing to do the work. If Astana wins the race, they owe it to him.
- Astana blaming their screw up on the radio communication is would be like the Miami Dophins blaming a loss because it was just too darned cold to be playing football in Green Bay. Even if you're right you still sound like a pussy. The radios are primarily for safety and assist with the racing. Ultimately if you want to win the race, put down your Blackberry, pay attention, and race at the front of the field Johan.
- Floyd = chubby
- Mancebo not waiting for Tim Johnson is funny. Tim Johnson complainint about it is funny. I'll be happy when the race leaves "whine" country.
- I owe Eustice and apology. Clearly he's not the worst cycling announcer ever.
- The officials supposedly changing the rules to that the GC time was taken the first time across the line is really interesting and totally changed the complexion of the race. It also explains how Mancebo put time into the chase on the circuits while the other to riders cleared the game. The way the whole finishing circuit played out was confusing, but makes more sense in light of the officials decission.
- Someone needs to get the cameraman on of those Sham-WOWs! Maybe the ShamWow! guy could do some announcing. THAT I'd watch.
- If Horner were such a dop- errrr 'super-motivated' rider he'd be, by far my favorite bicycle racer. He always reads the race perfectly, he speaks his mind, and he's always willing to do the work. If Astana wins the race, they owe it to him.
- Astana blaming their screw up on the radio communication is would be like the Miami Dophins blaming a loss because it was just too darned cold to be playing football in Green Bay. Even if you're right you still sound like a pussy. The radios are primarily for safety and assist with the racing. Ultimately if you want to win the race, put down your Blackberry, pay attention, and race at the front of the field Johan.
- Floyd = chubby
- Mancebo not waiting for Tim Johnson is funny. Tim Johnson complainint about it is funny. I'll be happy when the race leaves "whine" country.
- I owe Eustice and apology. Clearly he's not the worst cycling announcer ever.
- The officials supposedly changing the rules to that the GC time was taken the first time across the line is really interesting and totally changed the complexion of the race. It also explains how Mancebo put time into the chase on the circuits while the other to riders cleared the game. The way the whole finishing circuit played out was confusing, but makes more sense in light of the officials decission.
- Someone needs to get the cameraman on of those Sham-WOWs! Maybe the ShamWow! guy could do some announcing. THAT I'd watch.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
TREK - ARMSTONG - AMERICA
I get it. Sorry it took so long.
All those granny-earth muffin, WTO protesting, Birkenstock wearing, nutjobs who have been yelling about capitalist imperialism and American ills...I own you an apology. You were right.
Now in my defense, if you guys had presented yourselves a little better and, say, taken a bath once a month, you may have been able to make a more compelling argument. But bygones....
I have a friend who is a successful Trek dealer. I mentioned how I thought it was disappointing that Trek screwed over Greg LeMond. " Greg LeMond ? Greg LeMond is a big fucking crybaby full of sour grapes and jealousy."
Well you can imagine the the rest of the conversation didn't go particularly well.
But after some thoughtful discussion he make the following points:
- Yeah Lemond is right. Yes Lemond is fighting from the moral high ground. Yes Lance is a self-selving cheating dick with a god complex. And yes, the guy in the black hat is winning, and winning handily. It's like if Star Wars ended with Darth Vader killing Luke and Leah.
But none of that matters.
- Trek is making money. He's making money. Trek is American and so Lance is good for America ( he actually said this). Lance brings people to cycling. Lance brings attention to cancer. He said the benefits of Lance (even doping) outweigh the negatives. The ends totally justify the means. Even if he's right, Greg Lemond should have recognized that and should have realized that speaking out was going to cost him his business and his reputation. Ultimately no one really cares if Lance doped.
He (Greg) should have just shut the fuck up and get onto the gravy train.
THAT, my fiends, should be the first line revised constitution.
God Bless America(tm)
All those granny-earth muffin, WTO protesting, Birkenstock wearing, nutjobs who have been yelling about capitalist imperialism and American ills...I own you an apology. You were right.
Now in my defense, if you guys had presented yourselves a little better and, say, taken a bath once a month, you may have been able to make a more compelling argument. But bygones....
I have a friend who is a successful Trek dealer. I mentioned how I thought it was disappointing that Trek screwed over Greg LeMond. " Greg LeMond ? Greg LeMond is a big fucking crybaby full of sour grapes and jealousy."
Well you can imagine the the rest of the conversation didn't go particularly well.
But after some thoughtful discussion he make the following points:
- Yeah Lemond is right. Yes Lemond is fighting from the moral high ground. Yes Lance is a self-selving cheating dick with a god complex. And yes, the guy in the black hat is winning, and winning handily. It's like if Star Wars ended with Darth Vader killing Luke and Leah.
But none of that matters.
- Trek is making money. He's making money. Trek is American and so Lance is good for America ( he actually said this). Lance brings people to cycling. Lance brings attention to cancer. He said the benefits of Lance (even doping) outweigh the negatives. The ends totally justify the means. Even if he's right, Greg Lemond should have recognized that and should have realized that speaking out was going to cost him his business and his reputation. Ultimately no one really cares if Lance doped.
He (Greg) should have just shut the fuck up and get onto the gravy train.
THAT, my fiends, should be the first line revised constitution.
God Bless America(tm)
foreboding ? foreclosing ?
"Politics. Where greed wears the mask of morality." -Inspector Jacques Clouseau:
I have a friend who told me that he hasn't made a mortgage payment for three months. The bank called him for the first time this week. Instead of the hard sell, he got a simple request, " Can you pay anything ?"
Now before your let your heartstring get pulled I should give you a little more of the story. My friend no longer lives in the house. He now lives in an upscale condo, his 4th place in the last 6 years. He was one of the upwardly mobile suburban DC denizens who flipped houses every two years moving from a reasonable 400K place up to the 1.2 million mansion that he find himself upside down in. All along the way, he's made the move with little money down, ARMortgages, and using the proceeds to make the minimum down payment followed by purchases of sports cars, motorcycles, and Caribbean trips. Does that sound jealous ? Yeah, well that's probably because I am. During that same time period I've been cutting my lawn of the modest home and making the monthly nut on time as promised.
But that's besides the point. Whatever arrangements that exist between my friend and the bank are between those two. If they want to make a risky loan, fine. If he doesn't want to pay, what difference is it to me ? That's UNTIL I have to politicians bellyaching about poor Little Sally Johnson being evicted....or the " pain on Main Street". I have sympathy for working class people living from paycheck to paycheck, but I have little sympathy for people living above their means or for those people who got caught on the ground floor of a world-wide greed filled ponzi scheme they got caught up in.
Which brings us to my main point. The banks and policiticans would have us believe that they're being magnanimous by passing policies and legislation to limit the forecloseurs and by not evicting people from their homes for non-payment.
BULLSHIT.
If the banks thought for a minute that they could sell those homes for a profit, they'd do it in a minute. If they could get another interest paying veal to pony up the minimum down payment, then the current residents would be out on the street by sunset. What it really comes down to is that in this housing market the banks aren't getting any money...but if they foreclose on those houses they start LOSING money. So long as people like my buddy own the house, then my buddy has to cut the lawn, my buddy has to insure it, my buddy is responsible for the taxes, and there's the off change that the bank can talk him into making some sort of payments..then eventually pick the mortgage back up when things turn around. And THAT is what banks want.
Credit is imaginary money. Its a promise on future labor. And seeing as its largely fabricated wealth then whatever return the banks make on it is profit. If the bank can get my buddy to pay even a portion of the interest he owns each month, the bank is happy to let the principal sit in the "owed" column and continue to the the vig run. Loanshaking 101.
Thats what this bailout is about. Its about helping keep the banks afloat and keeping the loansharks in business.
I have a friend who told me that he hasn't made a mortgage payment for three months. The bank called him for the first time this week. Instead of the hard sell, he got a simple request, " Can you pay anything ?"
Now before your let your heartstring get pulled I should give you a little more of the story. My friend no longer lives in the house. He now lives in an upscale condo, his 4th place in the last 6 years. He was one of the upwardly mobile suburban DC denizens who flipped houses every two years moving from a reasonable 400K place up to the 1.2 million mansion that he find himself upside down in. All along the way, he's made the move with little money down, ARMortgages, and using the proceeds to make the minimum down payment followed by purchases of sports cars, motorcycles, and Caribbean trips. Does that sound jealous ? Yeah, well that's probably because I am. During that same time period I've been cutting my lawn of the modest home and making the monthly nut on time as promised.
But that's besides the point. Whatever arrangements that exist between my friend and the bank are between those two. If they want to make a risky loan, fine. If he doesn't want to pay, what difference is it to me ? That's UNTIL I have to politicians bellyaching about poor Little Sally Johnson being evicted....or the " pain on Main Street". I have sympathy for working class people living from paycheck to paycheck, but I have little sympathy for people living above their means or for those people who got caught on the ground floor of a world-wide greed filled ponzi scheme they got caught up in.
Which brings us to my main point. The banks and policiticans would have us believe that they're being magnanimous by passing policies and legislation to limit the forecloseurs and by not evicting people from their homes for non-payment.
BULLSHIT.
If the banks thought for a minute that they could sell those homes for a profit, they'd do it in a minute. If they could get another interest paying veal to pony up the minimum down payment, then the current residents would be out on the street by sunset. What it really comes down to is that in this housing market the banks aren't getting any money...but if they foreclose on those houses they start LOSING money. So long as people like my buddy own the house, then my buddy has to cut the lawn, my buddy has to insure it, my buddy is responsible for the taxes, and there's the off change that the bank can talk him into making some sort of payments..then eventually pick the mortgage back up when things turn around. And THAT is what banks want.
Credit is imaginary money. Its a promise on future labor. And seeing as its largely fabricated wealth then whatever return the banks make on it is profit. If the bank can get my buddy to pay even a portion of the interest he owns each month, the bank is happy to let the principal sit in the "owed" column and continue to the the vig run. Loanshaking 101.
Thats what this bailout is about. Its about helping keep the banks afloat and keeping the loansharks in business.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Defending a so called doper
So A-Rod is all over the news and using performance enhancing drugs.
Lets sets a few things straight.
* Prior to 2002 MLB had no testing program which means that whatever rules they had in place really didn't exist. I'll take that a step further and say that they knew the players were regularly takinf steriods and MLB didn't care. MLB made a lot of money during and after the Sosa/ Maguire rivalry.
* The self rightous reporters who are condemning players now were in the locker rooms and damn well knew what had been going on for year and years. They never said a word. They were complicit. For them to act shocked is hypocritical.
* In 2002 the players union agreed to participate with testing so that MLB could assess the situation. The tests were to be anonymous and not to be used against and player. A-Rod positive is coming out of those test, which are proving to be NOT anonymous and now are being considered for use against him. This type of behavior is going SET BACK the efforts of anti-doping in athletics. If the testers can't be trusted to follow their own rules and anonymous doesn't mean anonymous then you're not going to get any cooperation.
For me the issue is simple. For anything that occurred prior to 2004, the slate is wiped clean. None of that matters. Anything that happened(s) after 2004 should be enforced according to the rules in place. That's all. As for records, there needs to be some recognition that from 1990-2004 drugs were rampant in the sport.
From this point forward I'd consider any doping to be affecting the integrity of the game and I'd deal with it the same way that you would someone who cheated or gambled on games.
As for A-Rod, I can't see punishing a guy who did something years ago that nobody cared about then..because suddenly they care about it now.
Lets sets a few things straight.
* Prior to 2002 MLB had no testing program which means that whatever rules they had in place really didn't exist. I'll take that a step further and say that they knew the players were regularly takinf steriods and MLB didn't care. MLB made a lot of money during and after the Sosa/ Maguire rivalry.
* The self rightous reporters who are condemning players now were in the locker rooms and damn well knew what had been going on for year and years. They never said a word. They were complicit. For them to act shocked is hypocritical.
* In 2002 the players union agreed to participate with testing so that MLB could assess the situation. The tests were to be anonymous and not to be used against and player. A-Rod positive is coming out of those test, which are proving to be NOT anonymous and now are being considered for use against him. This type of behavior is going SET BACK the efforts of anti-doping in athletics. If the testers can't be trusted to follow their own rules and anonymous doesn't mean anonymous then you're not going to get any cooperation.
For me the issue is simple. For anything that occurred prior to 2004, the slate is wiped clean. None of that matters. Anything that happened(s) after 2004 should be enforced according to the rules in place. That's all. As for records, there needs to be some recognition that from 1990-2004 drugs were rampant in the sport.
From this point forward I'd consider any doping to be affecting the integrity of the game and I'd deal with it the same way that you would someone who cheated or gambled on games.
As for A-Rod, I can't see punishing a guy who did something years ago that nobody cared about then..because suddenly they care about it now.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Armstrong
Did you expect anything different ?
"Armstrong’s first race out of retirement, he said he was worried that publishing all his biological data would prompt unfair questions about him from the public. A layman would probably not be able to understand complex information"
- He's not cheating. You're just too dumb to know realize that.
"Armstrong’s first race out of retirement, he said he was worried that publishing all his biological data would prompt unfair questions about him from the public. A layman would probably not be able to understand complex information"
- He's not cheating. You're just too dumb to know realize that.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Discussion topic Wednesday
Suppose there's a kid who is pretty good at baseball and is graduating high school. He's given two choices:
1) Accept a partial scholarship ( $3500) from a small University to play baseball for them.
2) Sign with a independant league team for $ 3500 a year...and the team would accomodate his college academic schedule into his team participation.
We're going to assume the following for sake of discussion...
- He'd go to same college either in either case, and the college is local.
- The quality of play is slightly better with the pro team, but the competition for a starting spot is also slightly more difficult.
- The kids main goal is to play and enjoy baseball, but has not given up on thoughts of a real pro career.
The kid comes to you for advice, and you say ????
1) Accept a partial scholarship ( $3500) from a small University to play baseball for them.
2) Sign with a independant league team for $ 3500 a year...and the team would accomodate his college academic schedule into his team participation.
We're going to assume the following for sake of discussion...
- He'd go to same college either in either case, and the college is local.
- The quality of play is slightly better with the pro team, but the competition for a starting spot is also slightly more difficult.
- The kids main goal is to play and enjoy baseball, but has not given up on thoughts of a real pro career.
The kid comes to you for advice, and you say ????
Call to arms
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE
Figure out what your local municipality is. Find out what vacancies exist and fill them. Boards, commissions, committees, whatever. At the very least, go the to municipal website and read what's going on.
Everyone's attention is on the national stage. People bicker about stuff that barely or indirectly affects them, macro issues like the national economy, abortion, race relations, etc.
Meanwhile, right in your back yard, decisions are being made that are going to directly affect where you live, how your children are educated, and how much of your tax dollars are being taken out of your pocket. And by and large those decisions are being made by self-serving and/or under-informed dolts.
I hate to put it like that, but by and large, people who have the biggest interests in what's going on tend to be the least involved. Either people have no interest in local government or the feel like they're already torn with jobs and children to allocate much time to the get involved. SO what you, in far too many cases, are those people who either crave the position, or who have nothing else going on ( obv. not always the case, but its getting worse every year).
Let me put some of those concerns to rest. Typically, this participation doesn't end up taking much of your time at all. Usually one or two nights a month. Secondly, even if you can't participate fully. Having 50% of a competent person is better than 100% dolt.
Don't believe me, here's a few examples:
- Regardless of the size, condition, use, or maintenance of the septic system, local people are now being required to pay $300 to have their system pumped out and inspected every 2 and in some cases 3 years. The percentage of failing systems is minor, but the 90% of people with low risk, well maintained systems being forced to pay this fee for what is effectively no service.
- Local municipalities negotiated to add a tax to your cable bill. Check your bill out and it will say $0.40 or whatever directly to your local municipality each month. They'll pitch that as a fee to Comcast, but its written in the legislation to be an added tax to YOU the user. Currently many municipalities are negotiating to increase that fee. The major part of that negotiation is get Comcast to take the municipalities name off the bill. Still charge the tax mind you, just not disclose who it's going to. Oh, and the service provided to you the consumer for the fees paid, NOTHING...just the right to have cable !
I could go on and on, the example are numerous and in cases far more substantial than the two issues above. Point is...if you ain't driving the bus, then you're just along for the ride.
Take the small time it takes, read about what's going on, and get involved in your community.
Figure out what your local municipality is. Find out what vacancies exist and fill them. Boards, commissions, committees, whatever. At the very least, go the to municipal website and read what's going on.
Everyone's attention is on the national stage. People bicker about stuff that barely or indirectly affects them, macro issues like the national economy, abortion, race relations, etc.
Meanwhile, right in your back yard, decisions are being made that are going to directly affect where you live, how your children are educated, and how much of your tax dollars are being taken out of your pocket. And by and large those decisions are being made by self-serving and/or under-informed dolts.
I hate to put it like that, but by and large, people who have the biggest interests in what's going on tend to be the least involved. Either people have no interest in local government or the feel like they're already torn with jobs and children to allocate much time to the get involved. SO what you, in far too many cases, are those people who either crave the position, or who have nothing else going on ( obv. not always the case, but its getting worse every year).
Let me put some of those concerns to rest. Typically, this participation doesn't end up taking much of your time at all. Usually one or two nights a month. Secondly, even if you can't participate fully. Having 50% of a competent person is better than 100% dolt.
Don't believe me, here's a few examples:
- Regardless of the size, condition, use, or maintenance of the septic system, local people are now being required to pay $300 to have their system pumped out and inspected every 2 and in some cases 3 years. The percentage of failing systems is minor, but the 90% of people with low risk, well maintained systems being forced to pay this fee for what is effectively no service.
- Local municipalities negotiated to add a tax to your cable bill. Check your bill out and it will say $0.40 or whatever directly to your local municipality each month. They'll pitch that as a fee to Comcast, but its written in the legislation to be an added tax to YOU the user. Currently many municipalities are negotiating to increase that fee. The major part of that negotiation is get Comcast to take the municipalities name off the bill. Still charge the tax mind you, just not disclose who it's going to. Oh, and the service provided to you the consumer for the fees paid, NOTHING...just the right to have cable !
I could go on and on, the example are numerous and in cases far more substantial than the two issues above. Point is...if you ain't driving the bus, then you're just along for the ride.
Take the small time it takes, read about what's going on, and get involved in your community.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
droppin the old ka-nowledge
After a lengthy hiatus I finally have enough fitness to return to some of the local group rides.
About 2 hours into it on Sunday I looked down to see my front wheel sandwiched in six inches of space with someone's rear wheel on one side and gravel drop off on the other, and I risked life and limb to hide from the 20 mph wind blasting us into the gutter from left to right.
Finally the entire line moved left to avoid another one of the giant shit soup puddles of cow dung and snow melt and I had the opening I needed. I rode through the puddle, spraying myself and my water bottles with cow feces and using the draft to move up in the line.
When I got near the front I looked over to an old friend....both of us wet, tired, covered in mud and crap, and flat out fighting the wind...and said, " I can't believe I stayed away from this for 4 years....this is great !"
He laughed, thinking I was being sarcastic.
I wasn't.
Assuming I don't die from hoof and mouth disease, I'm already looking forward to next week.
Monday, February 09, 2009
Ron Paul making sense again
Cures for Our Economic Disease
I have recently had several opportunities on various news programs to discuss the economy and what is wrong with the so-called economic stimulus package. I have said over and over what we shouldn’t be doing, and now I’d like to explain what we should be doing.
But to improve the situation, you must first have a solid grasp of how we got here. Government policies and central planning created the housing bubble, now going bust. About a decade ago the government made expanded homeownership and affordable housing a public goal. Through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the secondary mortgage market the government incentivized creative, low down-payment, more widely available mortgage products, and discouraged the market-proven lending standards of the past. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates artificially low, which added more fuel to this fire. Many related sectors temporarily flourished because of this, and many people got into homes they otherwise could not have afforded. The increased demand for housing sent prices soaring until in many markets housing became even more unaffordable, necessitating even more creative mortgages, and impossibly leveraging homeowners. Many risky investment vehicles such as mortgage-backed securities, derivatives, credit default swaps grew out of this unsustainable situation. As the foreclosures began, the house of cards started to tumble. Too many people have confused the symptoms and the pain of the bust with the problematic policies that caused the bubble, which is really what needs to be treated.
First of all, just as the best cure for a hangover is not to drink so much, the best cure for a recession is a recession. It is time to sober up and return to free market sanity, risk and reward, supply and demand, without political intervention. Politicians are good at catering to the needs of special interests, but very bad at determining what needs to take place in the market. Government should stick to punishing fraud and enforcing contracts. When they use the tax code, bureaucratic departments and their manipulative rules and regulations to dictate social and economic behavior, we end up with distortions and malinvestments. Bailing out banks, continuing failed Fed policies and strapping the taxpayer with toxic debt will worsen the pain, and punish the innocent.
If Congress really wanted to do something helpful, it would cut taxes. Ideally, we would repeal the income tax altogether and get the IRS off the economy’s back, which would be a huge boon. We should also cut spending. Cut every unconstitutional department and program, every wasteful governmental encroachment on the people’s liberty and money, starting with our massive overseas empire. The cost of our empire is bringing us to our knees, just as the Soviets’ empire did to them. Congress should also abolish the Federal Reserve and take back its responsibilities to ensure sound money, safe from the manipulations of powerful banking interests.
These things would constitute real change, real economic stimulus. The plans being bandied about Washington are just more of the same. As long as no one seriously considers the cure, we are unfortunately destined to prolong the disease.
http://www.house.gov/paul/
I have recently had several opportunities on various news programs to discuss the economy and what is wrong with the so-called economic stimulus package. I have said over and over what we shouldn’t be doing, and now I’d like to explain what we should be doing.
But to improve the situation, you must first have a solid grasp of how we got here. Government policies and central planning created the housing bubble, now going bust. About a decade ago the government made expanded homeownership and affordable housing a public goal. Through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the secondary mortgage market the government incentivized creative, low down-payment, more widely available mortgage products, and discouraged the market-proven lending standards of the past. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates artificially low, which added more fuel to this fire. Many related sectors temporarily flourished because of this, and many people got into homes they otherwise could not have afforded. The increased demand for housing sent prices soaring until in many markets housing became even more unaffordable, necessitating even more creative mortgages, and impossibly leveraging homeowners. Many risky investment vehicles such as mortgage-backed securities, derivatives, credit default swaps grew out of this unsustainable situation. As the foreclosures began, the house of cards started to tumble. Too many people have confused the symptoms and the pain of the bust with the problematic policies that caused the bubble, which is really what needs to be treated.
First of all, just as the best cure for a hangover is not to drink so much, the best cure for a recession is a recession. It is time to sober up and return to free market sanity, risk and reward, supply and demand, without political intervention. Politicians are good at catering to the needs of special interests, but very bad at determining what needs to take place in the market. Government should stick to punishing fraud and enforcing contracts. When they use the tax code, bureaucratic departments and their manipulative rules and regulations to dictate social and economic behavior, we end up with distortions and malinvestments. Bailing out banks, continuing failed Fed policies and strapping the taxpayer with toxic debt will worsen the pain, and punish the innocent.
If Congress really wanted to do something helpful, it would cut taxes. Ideally, we would repeal the income tax altogether and get the IRS off the economy’s back, which would be a huge boon. We should also cut spending. Cut every unconstitutional department and program, every wasteful governmental encroachment on the people’s liberty and money, starting with our massive overseas empire. The cost of our empire is bringing us to our knees, just as the Soviets’ empire did to them. Congress should also abolish the Federal Reserve and take back its responsibilities to ensure sound money, safe from the manipulations of powerful banking interests.
These things would constitute real change, real economic stimulus. The plans being bandied about Washington are just more of the same. As long as no one seriously considers the cure, we are unfortunately destined to prolong the disease.
http://www.house.gov/paul/
Friday, February 06, 2009
an old friend
The last two months of sobriety has worked out really well for me.
So naturally, last night I decided it would be a good idea to have a few glasses of scotch.
It was like bumping into your ex-girlfriend out one night and then going home with her. At first it seems like a reasonable idea and a fun time. Then the next day you wake up and your very first thought is, " why did I do that" and you remember why you broke up with her in the first place.
Yeah, good times...I just hope it (the booze) realizes last evening was just a one night stand and doesn't assume that we're back into a relationship.
So naturally, last night I decided it would be a good idea to have a few glasses of scotch.
It was like bumping into your ex-girlfriend out one night and then going home with her. At first it seems like a reasonable idea and a fun time. Then the next day you wake up and your very first thought is, " why did I do that" and you remember why you broke up with her in the first place.
Yeah, good times...I just hope it (the booze) realizes last evening was just a one night stand and doesn't assume that we're back into a relationship.
Monday, February 02, 2009
LANCE NEWS NETWORK
Feb 02, 2009 - Austin, Tx
Headline: Lance Scratches His Ass.
Seven time Tour De France winner and semi-Deity Lance Armstrong scratched his ass today. The ass scratching occurred about one hour and forty-three minutes into a four hour training ride just outside of the Livestrong compound in Austin Texas. The ass scratching sent shockwaves through the cycling world as riders, journalists, and UCI president Pat McQuaid scrambled to respond the this afternoon's event.
Interviewed in Qatar after his stage win today Roger Hammond was asked about the ass scratching and how it would impact his chances in the tour. His response, " I'm not even racing the bloody Tour", showed just how intimidating Armstrong's return is the to peloton.
Alberto Contador issued a statement through his agent saying, " I continue to respect Lance's accomplishments, but ass scratching or no ass scratching, I still plan on being leader of the Astana team in July." Levi Leipheimer, also contacted this afternoon was surprised by the news, " Lance scratched his ass ? Really ? I would have happily scratched his ass, but I'm not due to be down there till Thursday. So your saying that new Spanish kid wasn't down there scratching his ass ? Well at least that's good."
The UCI's response came in the form of a press release from Pat McQuaid, " The UCI has recently learned of the increased incidents of ass scratching in the peloton. We'd directed WADA to immediately begin work on a finding a test. We hope to eradicated this egregious scratching of the buttocks and all other hind quarter areas."
The only one seeming unconcerned with the hoopla was Armstrong confidant and wingman John College Korioth, " Yeah dude, I just put the official Livestrong ass scratchers up on the website..in both black with yellow trim and vice-versa. We're hoping these sell better than the Mary-Kate and Ashley commemorative diaphragms, cause the big pool off the guesthouse needs a new filter...oh yeah, and to save the cancer kids and shit."
Headline: Lance Scratches His Ass.
Seven time Tour De France winner and semi-Deity Lance Armstrong scratched his ass today. The ass scratching occurred about one hour and forty-three minutes into a four hour training ride just outside of the Livestrong compound in Austin Texas. The ass scratching sent shockwaves through the cycling world as riders, journalists, and UCI president Pat McQuaid scrambled to respond the this afternoon's event.
Interviewed in Qatar after his stage win today Roger Hammond was asked about the ass scratching and how it would impact his chances in the tour. His response, " I'm not even racing the bloody Tour", showed just how intimidating Armstrong's return is the to peloton.
Alberto Contador issued a statement through his agent saying, " I continue to respect Lance's accomplishments, but ass scratching or no ass scratching, I still plan on being leader of the Astana team in July." Levi Leipheimer, also contacted this afternoon was surprised by the news, " Lance scratched his ass ? Really ? I would have happily scratched his ass, but I'm not due to be down there till Thursday. So your saying that new Spanish kid wasn't down there scratching his ass ? Well at least that's good."
The UCI's response came in the form of a press release from Pat McQuaid, " The UCI has recently learned of the increased incidents of ass scratching in the peloton. We'd directed WADA to immediately begin work on a finding a test. We hope to eradicated this egregious scratching of the buttocks and all other hind quarter areas."
The only one seeming unconcerned with the hoopla was Armstrong confidant and wingman John College Korioth, " Yeah dude, I just put the official Livestrong ass scratchers up on the website..in both black with yellow trim and vice-versa. We're hoping these sell better than the Mary-Kate and Ashley commemorative diaphragms, cause the big pool off the guesthouse needs a new filter...oh yeah, and to save the cancer kids and shit."
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