Wednesday, April 28, 2010
hot dog update
I ate 4 hot dogs around 4 am after drinking a little bit tonight. My total is at 397 which = 53 more to go in the next 3 days.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Hot Dog !
In the poker forums I guy bet $1000 to win $1500 that he could eat 450 hot dogs in the month of April.
hot dog consumption, day-by-day status
date/amount/total/ED
april 1st - 17, 17, 15
april 2nd - 18, 35, 30
april 3rd - 15, 50, 45
april 4th - 13, 63, 60
april 5th - 14, 77, 75
april 6th - 13.5, 90.5, 90
april 7th - 13.5, 104, 105
april 8th - 12, 116, 120
april 9th - 15, 131, 135
april 10th - 12, 143, 150
april 11th - 17, 160, 165
april 12th - 11, 171, 180
april 13th - 10, 181, 195
april 14th - 19, 200, 210
april 15th - 8, 208, 225
april 16th - 14, 222, 240
april 17th - 17, 239, 255
april 18th - 18, 257, 270
april 19th - 18, 275, 285
april 20th - 16, 291, 300
april 21st - 6, 297, 315
april 22nd - 16, 309, 330
april 23rd - 19, 328, 345
april 24th - 18, 346, 360
april 25th - 9, 355, 375
he has had 11 on april 26th already, which is solid.
4.5 day and 84 to go. Should be close.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/poker-beats-brags-variance/hot-dog-prop-bet-april-1st-30th-749434/
hot dog consumption, day-by-day status
date/amount/total/ED
april 1st - 17, 17, 15
april 2nd - 18, 35, 30
april 3rd - 15, 50, 45
april 4th - 13, 63, 60
april 5th - 14, 77, 75
april 6th - 13.5, 90.5, 90
april 7th - 13.5, 104, 105
april 8th - 12, 116, 120
april 9th - 15, 131, 135
april 10th - 12, 143, 150
april 11th - 17, 160, 165
april 12th - 11, 171, 180
april 13th - 10, 181, 195
april 14th - 19, 200, 210
april 15th - 8, 208, 225
april 16th - 14, 222, 240
april 17th - 17, 239, 255
april 18th - 18, 257, 270
april 19th - 18, 275, 285
april 20th - 16, 291, 300
april 21st - 6, 297, 315
april 22nd - 16, 309, 330
april 23rd - 19, 328, 345
april 24th - 18, 346, 360
april 25th - 9, 355, 375
he has had 11 on april 26th already, which is solid.
4.5 day and 84 to go. Should be close.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/poker-beats-brags-variance/hot-dog-prop-bet-april-1st-30th-749434/
Monday, April 19, 2010
Sunday's golf
You may have heard this:
Something seemed very wrong when Brian Davis of England summoned a rules official immediately after hitting his pitch from the hazard near Calibogue Sound in Sunday’s playoff with Jim Furyk for the Verizon Heritage title. Actually, something was very right.
As most of the golf world knows by now, Davis called a two-stroke penalty on himself that cost him the tournament.
He had ever-so-slightly nicked a reed during his backswing while trying to recover from the beach left of the 18th green. Barely moved it. To the naked eye, it was almost invisible. But not to Davis, who was pretty sure he knew what had happened and who called Slugger White of the PGA Tour over to verify his judgment.
While the self-imposed penalty is notable, the truth is that even without the penalty Furyk was likely to win. Davis' shot sailed 25 feet past the hole and he was unlikely to make par anyway.
I thought that what may have been more interesting than the penalty was Davis' decision to play the shot from inside the hazard itself.
For those of you who didn't watch, here was the situation in a nutshell. Davis' shot hit the edge of the green, then rolled off the course and onto a sandy beach. Furyk was obliged to putt first and left his ball 6 feet from the hole and was likely carding a 4.
Davis had two choices:
1. Hit from the hazard...a wet sandy lie with no practice swing..or
2. Take a one stroke penalty and then try to chip/putt it from the green side grass maybe 15 feet from the hole.
From there it becomes (or should have become) an evaluation of percentages.
How many times can he chip it in from 15 feet( 35%)
vs
How many times can he hit up up and then make the putt - Which is a combination of; when he chips it to 10 feet ( 30% of the time) he'll make the putt 80% for a total of 24% PLUS when his chips between 10-20 (30%) he'll make the putt 40% for another 12$; and when he chips is more than 20 feet away (60%) he'll only make it 5% of the time, add 3% for a total of 24 + 12 + 3 = 39% of the time he'll score a 2.
As 39% is higher than 35%, he should play it from the hazard.
Of course I'm making all of those numbers up. But the point is that there's a non-intuitive process by which you can ( and perhaps should) make decisions. Many of those decisions occur in your every day life.
That's the foundation of applied game theory, and also the genesis behind a pretty cool book that I've added to my birthday wish list.
DUCY? Exploits, Advice, and Ideas of the Renowned Strategist by David Sklansy
(DUCY is for Do You See Why)
Something seemed very wrong when Brian Davis of England summoned a rules official immediately after hitting his pitch from the hazard near Calibogue Sound in Sunday’s playoff with Jim Furyk for the Verizon Heritage title. Actually, something was very right.
As most of the golf world knows by now, Davis called a two-stroke penalty on himself that cost him the tournament.
He had ever-so-slightly nicked a reed during his backswing while trying to recover from the beach left of the 18th green. Barely moved it. To the naked eye, it was almost invisible. But not to Davis, who was pretty sure he knew what had happened and who called Slugger White of the PGA Tour over to verify his judgment.
While the self-imposed penalty is notable, the truth is that even without the penalty Furyk was likely to win. Davis' shot sailed 25 feet past the hole and he was unlikely to make par anyway.
I thought that what may have been more interesting than the penalty was Davis' decision to play the shot from inside the hazard itself.
For those of you who didn't watch, here was the situation in a nutshell. Davis' shot hit the edge of the green, then rolled off the course and onto a sandy beach. Furyk was obliged to putt first and left his ball 6 feet from the hole and was likely carding a 4.
Davis had two choices:
1. Hit from the hazard...a wet sandy lie with no practice swing..or
2. Take a one stroke penalty and then try to chip/putt it from the green side grass maybe 15 feet from the hole.
From there it becomes (or should have become) an evaluation of percentages.
How many times can he chip it in from 15 feet( 35%)
vs
How many times can he hit up up and then make the putt - Which is a combination of; when he chips it to 10 feet ( 30% of the time) he'll make the putt 80% for a total of 24% PLUS when his chips between 10-20 (30%) he'll make the putt 40% for another 12$; and when he chips is more than 20 feet away (60%) he'll only make it 5% of the time, add 3% for a total of 24 + 12 + 3 = 39% of the time he'll score a 2.
As 39% is higher than 35%, he should play it from the hazard.
Of course I'm making all of those numbers up. But the point is that there's a non-intuitive process by which you can ( and perhaps should) make decisions. Many of those decisions occur in your every day life.
That's the foundation of applied game theory, and also the genesis behind a pretty cool book that I've added to my birthday wish list.
DUCY? Exploits, Advice, and Ideas of the Renowned Strategist by David Sklansy
(DUCY is for Do You See Why)
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Monday, April 12, 2010
Rahsaan Bahati is a ninja
Rahsaan Bahati (Bahati Foundation), who was involved in the pile-up, was seen throwing his sunglasses at a rider in the group while standing in the road at the start of the penultimate lap. Bahati¹s glasses caught Andrew Pinfold’s (UnitedHealthcare) front wheel, ripping off his computer receiver.... the computer receiver lodged in his front wheel, slowing Pinfold enough for the Jamis tandem, Cantwell in tow, to surge past on the left side of the road.
If you can render an otherwise fully functional bicycle useless, by throwing your sunglasses at it while it speeds by at 30 mph, then your wasting your talents on bicycle racing.
@ 40 seconds
If you can render an otherwise fully functional bicycle useless, by throwing your sunglasses at it while it speeds by at 30 mph, then your wasting your talents on bicycle racing.
@ 40 seconds
Wednesday, April 07, 2010
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Chrome Shoes
I participated in this....very cool.
Hats of...actually shoes off to Chrome Shoes.
Turds for Gold Results !
Hats of...actually shoes off to Chrome Shoes.
Turds for Gold Results !
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Friday, March 26, 2010
Thursday, March 25, 2010
cycling tip of the day
Which was the is wind blowing ?
I love to ask that question to new riders.
If you ask a beginner it takes about 15 seconds for them to think about where it's coming from. If you ask an experienced rider the answer will be immediate...and usually by pointing. I always know where the wind is coming from....even when I'm indoors. But I might be a special case...I hate the friggin' wind in the way that people who have been attacked by dogs don't cry at the end of Ol'Yeller.
If you're a new rider, the first thing you should do is take notice of which direction the wind is blowing, and continue to reassess the direction as conditions change. Sometimes, especially in a pack, the direction will not always be obvious, but I've found that if you look hard enough you can always find cues from things such as flags in peoples yards, smoke from smokestacks, and which way the crops are leaning.
Once you've determined where the wind is, be sure to be on the opposite side of the field from it. Seems obvious enough right ? Often you're better off being further back in the pack and on the good side, than all the way up on the bad side.
When you get to a corner, many times your position relative to the wind will shift. You'll go from wind at your front left over to your back right. Use the accordion effect of the corner to switch your position from one side of the pack to the other. Anticipating these changes in advance of the corner will allow you to save energy and make an easy transition.
Be absolutely sure which was the wind is blowing at the finish. The rule of thumb I used to give juniors I coached was the ride backwards from the finish line in your 53x13 for 65 pedal revolutions and look for some landmark to start your sprint. Add or substract two revolutions for every 1MPH of wind you estimate and start your sprint from that spot.
I love to ask that question to new riders.
If you ask a beginner it takes about 15 seconds for them to think about where it's coming from. If you ask an experienced rider the answer will be immediate...and usually by pointing. I always know where the wind is coming from....even when I'm indoors. But I might be a special case...I hate the friggin' wind in the way that people who have been attacked by dogs don't cry at the end of Ol'Yeller.
If you're a new rider, the first thing you should do is take notice of which direction the wind is blowing, and continue to reassess the direction as conditions change. Sometimes, especially in a pack, the direction will not always be obvious, but I've found that if you look hard enough you can always find cues from things such as flags in peoples yards, smoke from smokestacks, and which way the crops are leaning.
Once you've determined where the wind is, be sure to be on the opposite side of the field from it. Seems obvious enough right ? Often you're better off being further back in the pack and on the good side, than all the way up on the bad side.
When you get to a corner, many times your position relative to the wind will shift. You'll go from wind at your front left over to your back right. Use the accordion effect of the corner to switch your position from one side of the pack to the other. Anticipating these changes in advance of the corner will allow you to save energy and make an easy transition.
Be absolutely sure which was the wind is blowing at the finish. The rule of thumb I used to give juniors I coached was the ride backwards from the finish line in your 53x13 for 65 pedal revolutions and look for some landmark to start your sprint. Add or substract two revolutions for every 1MPH of wind you estimate and start your sprint from that spot.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Mailbag
To PT Paul's comment
I know nothing about the health care bill.
I will, however, bet $100 on the fact that the insurance companies and the pharmaceutical companies will directly benefit from the bill.
The screaming about socialism and death panels, or whatever they're yelling about, is always a smokescreen to keep you from paying attention to what's really going on. And whats always really going on is that big business is securing their place in the world.
Don't worry about insurance companies. If anything you should start buying their stock.
Regarding tactics in training races from earlier in the week
If the team actually raced well on the weekends, then not practicing tactics on Wed. would make sense. But when you have the biggest team and a bunch of good riders, and you can't get a top 3 after May 1st, then something is fundamentally wrong.
College basketball teams don't practice for the tournament by only jacking up three pointers all day.
If half of the GS team raced in last years jersey, half in this years jersey, and everyone treated it like a real race, then it would be a lot of fun, a lot more interesting, and no less hard than it is now. I'd content that if you got some attacking, counter attacking and real chasing then the racing would be harder. Riding around at 26 mph like a giant herd really isn't doing anyone except the (same) 5 guys on the front any good.
The whole " its only a training race thing" is a total cop out for guys who either don't know how to race, who are TWHs*, or are disguising their own ambitions.
Word.
* TWH - Tailwind Heros. The guys who sit in for 3 laps, then when a break goes and there's a pause, they go to the front in the tailwind section and sprint as hard as the can for 26 seconds. I spend most of the night with Jukebox Hero playing in my head but coming up with new words. I'm up to like 37 verses.
I know nothing about the health care bill.
I will, however, bet $100 on the fact that the insurance companies and the pharmaceutical companies will directly benefit from the bill.
The screaming about socialism and death panels, or whatever they're yelling about, is always a smokescreen to keep you from paying attention to what's really going on. And whats always really going on is that big business is securing their place in the world.
Don't worry about insurance companies. If anything you should start buying their stock.
Regarding tactics in training races from earlier in the week
If the team actually raced well on the weekends, then not practicing tactics on Wed. would make sense. But when you have the biggest team and a bunch of good riders, and you can't get a top 3 after May 1st, then something is fundamentally wrong.
College basketball teams don't practice for the tournament by only jacking up three pointers all day.
If half of the GS team raced in last years jersey, half in this years jersey, and everyone treated it like a real race, then it would be a lot of fun, a lot more interesting, and no less hard than it is now. I'd content that if you got some attacking, counter attacking and real chasing then the racing would be harder. Riding around at 26 mph like a giant herd really isn't doing anyone except the (same) 5 guys on the front any good.
The whole " its only a training race thing" is a total cop out for guys who either don't know how to race, who are TWHs*, or are disguising their own ambitions.
Word.
* TWH - Tailwind Heros. The guys who sit in for 3 laps, then when a break goes and there's a pause, they go to the front in the tailwind section and sprint as hard as the can for 26 seconds. I spend most of the night with Jukebox Hero playing in my head but coming up with new words. I'm up to like 37 verses.
Monday, March 22, 2010
NOT about the health care plan
As stated earlier, I don't know anything about the health care plan other than anything that involves this much yelling can only mean that someone has found a new way to screw all of us and now its a mad dash to get to the front of the gang bang train.
So I find it a funny coincidence that I had the following happen to me today.
We'll start last year when my wife started taking Rozeru\em. Rozerem is a mild, no addiictive, no narcotic, sleep aid. Other than Tylenol PM, its about the most benign sleep drug you can get. Fortunately, it worked really well on my wife.
We switched insurance companies and they said, "Rozerem only works on 25% of patients so you have to try Lunesta first". Despite explaining to them that we already knew she was one of the 25% they were unyielding and switched her to the more intense narcotic.
Lets fast forward a year and I've asked for Lunesta. I got a sample from the doctor and tried it a couple of times over the last 3 months. Its not something I'd regularly take, but at stressful times when I can't sleep I've taken one and it helps. So I called the doc and he prescribed me a low dose version.
I just got back from the Pharmacy. The insurance company says that the Lunesta is expensive and they have a better deal for themselves for Ambien. Ambien is a total ass kicker of a drug. Its the stuff that you hear about people sleep driving on....yeah driving while asleep.
I protested and said, " I don't want any kick ass shit, I just want the lowest dose Lunesta please."
Nope. It either have to take most potent stuff out there. That's sort of messed up.
So I find it a funny coincidence that I had the following happen to me today.
We'll start last year when my wife started taking Rozeru\em. Rozerem is a mild, no addiictive, no narcotic, sleep aid. Other than Tylenol PM, its about the most benign sleep drug you can get. Fortunately, it worked really well on my wife.
We switched insurance companies and they said, "Rozerem only works on 25% of patients so you have to try Lunesta first". Despite explaining to them that we already knew she was one of the 25% they were unyielding and switched her to the more intense narcotic.
Lets fast forward a year and I've asked for Lunesta. I got a sample from the doctor and tried it a couple of times over the last 3 months. Its not something I'd regularly take, but at stressful times when I can't sleep I've taken one and it helps. So I called the doc and he prescribed me a low dose version.
I just got back from the Pharmacy. The insurance company says that the Lunesta is expensive and they have a better deal for themselves for Ambien. Ambien is a total ass kicker of a drug. Its the stuff that you hear about people sleep driving on....yeah driving while asleep.
I protested and said, " I don't want any kick ass shit, I just want the lowest dose Lunesta please."
Nope. It either have to take most potent stuff out there. That's sort of messed up.
A peak behind the curtain
Neil Brown, cycling journalist ( and Landis apologist), was on the Spokesman Roundtable last week when the Kornheiser/Armstrong issue came up.
Brown wasn't upset about Kornheiser about what T.K. said. He was mad that T.K. scooped the interview.
Brown stated that he and Road Magazine had spend the year purposely not printing anything inflammatory about Astana so that they could get an interview with Lance Armstrong. In the end, and after having to wait an additional three weeks after scheduling it, all their silence bought them was one brief interview.
He was complaining that Kornheiser didn't play according to the Lance rules but still got an interview, and in three days even ! The horror the horror!
It was weirdly refreshing to hear someone finally admit how "journalism" really works.
Brown wasn't upset about Kornheiser about what T.K. said. He was mad that T.K. scooped the interview.
Brown stated that he and Road Magazine had spend the year purposely not printing anything inflammatory about Astana so that they could get an interview with Lance Armstrong. In the end, and after having to wait an additional three weeks after scheduling it, all their silence bought them was one brief interview.
He was complaining that Kornheiser didn't play according to the Lance rules but still got an interview, and in three days even ! The horror the horror!
It was weirdly refreshing to hear someone finally admit how "journalism" really works.
an interesting quote
I had been on a self prescribe all news (except sports) blackout for the last two weeks. I came out of it this morning to see this:
From Hillary Clinton
"As Israel's friend, it is our responsibility to give credit when it is due and to tell the truth when it is needed," she said in a text of her speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee that was released by the State Department.
I would be awesome to know when truth was needed.
Did you see the missionaries who were arrested in Haiti...
1) were taking kids that weren't orphans it turns out, and
2) hired a lawyer or was arrested on Friday on outstanding warrants. He's a fugitive for stealing children in El Salvador, the US, and Canada for sexual purposes.
I've seen my shadow and I'm going back into my hole. If anyone sees and important news please send me a link.
From Hillary Clinton
"As Israel's friend, it is our responsibility to give credit when it is due and to tell the truth when it is needed," she said in a text of her speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee that was released by the State Department.
I would be awesome to know when truth was needed.
Did you see the missionaries who were arrested in Haiti...
1) were taking kids that weren't orphans it turns out, and
2) hired a lawyer or was arrested on Friday on outstanding warrants. He's a fugitive for stealing children in El Salvador, the US, and Canada for sexual purposes.
I've seen my shadow and I'm going back into my hole. If anyone sees and important news please send me a link.
Friday, March 19, 2010
FWIW
Dear new riders,
I'd like to save you some time and effort. If the fastest you can go when you're time trialing is 22 mph, and the group you're riding in is going 23 mph, you will not be successful in your attempt at a solo breakaway. This is not an attempt to insult your abilities or desire. Its what we in the business refer to as "simple math".
I may have ridden around the Tuesday night course ( what some of you people refer to was Wednesday Worlds) more than any other human being. This will be my 20th year riding there, plus I used to to intervals over there up to two times a week for about 5 years. There have been times when I've been under a great deal of stress where I break out of some trace and find myself driving my car around the that loop for comfort, like a baby and his woobie. Ok that's not true, I'm just saying that I'm familiar with the route.
The A group goes around that loop on average around 8 minute laps. That's 24.75 mph. The fastest lap I've even done it solo, in training, is 7:50 and that was 1 lap, fresh and with aero bars. So I long ago recognized that a solo effort is obviously impossible. Seeing as the final lap is typically the fastest, you'd really need to be able to ride about a 7:30 ( 26.4) to 7:45 (25.6) final lap in order to hold off the group. For perspective, that would be a 57:30 40KM TT.
Based on the last two years time trial results, the only local riders who would come close to being able to do that would be (in order) Clayton Barrows, Mike Whitaker, Brian Trdina, and Steve May. If you don't see your name on that list, then your chances are grim.
Of course a collective effort is a different story all together. If you can get three or more guys working together then you have a shot. But even that combination needs a few things.
* All the guys still need to be able to roll it pretty damn fast ( 25+)
* All the guys need to actually commit to riding without screwing around
* All the guys need to have some rudimentary idea of how to paceline without accelerating too quickly or pulling off to the wrong side.
Oh yeah, the break cannot have a Spinners/GS Lancaster presented by Thru-It-All(tm) rider in it. The only thing that makes that team chase a breakaway faster is if it has one of its own teammates in it.
So to recap; If you want to win Wednesday Worlds, either
A)be Brian Trdina or
B)wait for the sprint and hope Shebelsky gets a flat.
I'd like to save you some time and effort. If the fastest you can go when you're time trialing is 22 mph, and the group you're riding in is going 23 mph, you will not be successful in your attempt at a solo breakaway. This is not an attempt to insult your abilities or desire. Its what we in the business refer to as "simple math".
I may have ridden around the Tuesday night course ( what some of you people refer to was Wednesday Worlds) more than any other human being. This will be my 20th year riding there, plus I used to to intervals over there up to two times a week for about 5 years. There have been times when I've been under a great deal of stress where I break out of some trace and find myself driving my car around the that loop for comfort, like a baby and his woobie. Ok that's not true, I'm just saying that I'm familiar with the route.
The A group goes around that loop on average around 8 minute laps. That's 24.75 mph. The fastest lap I've even done it solo, in training, is 7:50 and that was 1 lap, fresh and with aero bars. So I long ago recognized that a solo effort is obviously impossible. Seeing as the final lap is typically the fastest, you'd really need to be able to ride about a 7:30 ( 26.4) to 7:45 (25.6) final lap in order to hold off the group. For perspective, that would be a 57:30 40KM TT.
Based on the last two years time trial results, the only local riders who would come close to being able to do that would be (in order) Clayton Barrows, Mike Whitaker, Brian Trdina, and Steve May. If you don't see your name on that list, then your chances are grim.
Of course a collective effort is a different story all together. If you can get three or more guys working together then you have a shot. But even that combination needs a few things.
* All the guys still need to be able to roll it pretty damn fast ( 25+)
* All the guys need to actually commit to riding without screwing around
* All the guys need to have some rudimentary idea of how to paceline without accelerating too quickly or pulling off to the wrong side.
Oh yeah, the break cannot have a Spinners/GS Lancaster presented by Thru-It-All(tm) rider in it. The only thing that makes that team chase a breakaway faster is if it has one of its own teammates in it.
So to recap; If you want to win Wednesday Worlds, either
A)be Brian Trdina or
B)wait for the sprint and hope Shebelsky gets a flat.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
My head is going to assplode
I was attempting to do some recording over Skype to put together some lame podcast of an idea that I have. Almost an hour later, between software downloads, reboots, and tutorials, I'm not a hell of a lot further than when I started.
And that doesn't count the 40 minutes of rooting around to find my new earphones and microphone, both of which are still lost. And the 15 minutes of apologizing to my family after accusing the of hiding my stuff so that I'd freak out and have a stroke and then they could collect the life insurance money on me.
My apology was reluctantly accepted, but only because the youngest girls started asking if we really got money if Daddy died and would it be enough to get a pony, and that sort of spooked everyone out.
So if anyone has any experience which podcasting or skype recording please contact me and try and save me and my family additional anguish.
And that doesn't count the 40 minutes of rooting around to find my new earphones and microphone, both of which are still lost. And the 15 minutes of apologizing to my family after accusing the of hiding my stuff so that I'd freak out and have a stroke and then they could collect the life insurance money on me.
My apology was reluctantly accepted, but only because the youngest girls started asking if we really got money if Daddy died and would it be enough to get a pony, and that sort of spooked everyone out.
So if anyone has any experience which podcasting or skype recording please contact me and try and save me and my family additional anguish.
Dunno why, but this cracks me up
The teeth sprout into sharp thrusting daggers, the hair grows dark and bristled, and marauding packs search the night for victims to devour.
Sounds like a spooky Halloween story, but it isn't werewolves that are tearing up farmland in parts of Central Pennsylvania. Last week the Pennsylvania Game Commission rescinded protection on wild, breeding populations of feral swine in Butler, Bedford and Cambria counties.
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08307/924722-358.stm#ixzz0iMUn74Qs
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